Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s game between the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals.
At 78-57, the Tigers own the American League’s second-best record. However, four straight losses have hampered Detroit’s quest for home-field advantage this postseason. Things won’t get any easier on Friday against the scrappy Royals. Kansas City, 69-65, remains just three games behind the Mariners for a wildcard spot. With so much on the line, which of these two rivals will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between the Tigers and the Royals.
The Royals are favorites (-123) over the Tigers, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Tigers vs. Royals prediction, preview
On paper, the Royals should be confident heading into this one. Winners in three of their last four contests, Kansas City will hand the ball to All-Star Seth Lugo. However, the right-hander has been largely awful over the past two months. In ten appearances since July 1st, the 35-year-old owns a 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. That includes a disappointing 4.1-inning, six-run performance against the Tigers last weekend. If there’s any silver lining, most of the right-hander’s worst games have come on the road. When pitching at Kauffman Stadium, Lugo has a stellar 3.28 ERA.
It helps that the Tigers aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. Over the last two months, Detroit is averaging a middling 4.52 runs per game. On the road, that number drops down to just 3.6 runs, fourth-worst in baseball during that time. This is a lineup filled with quality hitters, but no true superstars. Just two Tigers rank inside the league’s top 50 batters in wRC+: Riley Greene (128) and Spencer Torkelson (121).
Detroit, losers in four straight, desperately needs a quality start tonight. It’ll be trade deadline acquisition Chris Paddack on the bump tonight. In five outings with his new team, the righty has posted a 5.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 14 strikeouts. Those numbers, while subpar, are inflated by a disastrous eight-run meltdown vs. the Twins. As a member of the Tigers, Paddack has allowed one run or less three different times. That includes a five-inning, one-run showing against the Royals last week. With that being said, Kansas City has scored the fourth-most runs in baseball this month (149).
Tigers vs. Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers vs. Royals under nine total runs (-106)
Neither Lugo nor Paddack has been the most trustworthy pitcher lately. Still, it’s fair to say neither are quite as bad as their recent numbers would suggest. In addition, the Tigers have looked terrible at the plate away from Comerica Park. Ahead of what should be an intense, high-stakes matchup, expect runs to be at a premium.
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