‘Hamnet,’ ‘Sentimental Value’ get early boost in the Oscar race

While Oscar season is always unpredictable, there are a few things you can always bank on about Telluride: the weather will change every 15 minutes, even the biggest A-list stars will stroll the streets casually — and one film will emerge as the festival favorite.

While Telluride may not officially hand out prizes, this year that crown went to Hamnet, Chloé Zhao‘s transcendent drama that imagines the love story of William Shakespeare and his wife, Agnes Hathaway (Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley) — and how they cope with the death of their son, Hamnet (Jacobi Jupe). It was the talk of every gondola ride, passholder line, and coffee queue, with audiences and critics alike praising Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell‘s best-selling novel (the two collaborated on the screenplay) — and singling out Buckley‘s heartrending performance. While the emotional film left altitude-challenged festgoers even more dehydrated with free-flowing tears, they were near-unanimous in their across-the-board praise for what’s now well-positioned as an Oscar frontrunner for Focus Features and a perfect 100 percent Rotten Tomatoes score.

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There are several other festival darlings, of course — Joachim Trier‘s Sentimental Value, which earned the Grand Prix prize at Cannes and is Norway’s entry for International Feature — was also a high point of the weekend. Stellan Skarsgård is considered a lock for a Best Supporting Actor nomination for a career-best performance as the estranged father and struggling director whose return into his daughters’ lives upends them all. Renate Reinsve will prove a worthy rival to Buckley in the Best Actress category as Nora, the elder daughter and actress who’s resisting starring in the film her father has written for her.

And then there’s It’s Just an Accident. One of the festival’s tribute recipients was filmmaker Jafar Panahi, whose film earned the Palme d’Or in Cannes. His appearance at the festival marked his first trip to the U.S. after being jailed in Iran. As it had in France, the politically charged film resonated with audiences (the film also holds a perfect RT score), recounting how a simple accident triggers a complex exploration of morality. Panahi welcomed the honor with his trademark grace and humility. “I don’t know anything else other than cinema,” he said when asked what drives him, even in the face of a totalitarian government. But when he asked the audience to wish happy birthday to his script consultant Mehdi Mahmoudian who remains in prison, Panahi left the stage of the Chuck Jones’ Cinema too overcome to speak.

Thankfully, that wasn’t the only singing heard in the Rockies. We came into the festival knowing Jeremy Allen White had channeled the Boss for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — and he more than delivered. The don’t-call-it-a-biopic bowed to strong reviews, especially for the Jeremys. White is well-positioned in the Best Actor race — he’s got the Boss’ endorsement — and Jeremy Strong delivers as well as always, playing manager Jon Landau. Worth noting, too: Stephen Graham, making waves in this year’s Emmy race for Adolescence, stands out for his quietly powerful scenes as Springsteen’s father. “I’m old and I don’t give a f–k what I do now,” said Springsteen when asked why he agreed to participate in writer-director Scott Cooper‘s film, after presumably turning down multiple offers.

Focus has another strong contender with Bugonia, the latest collaboration between director Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone. This time out, she plays the CEO of a tech corporation who gets kidnapped by a pair of conspiracy theorists (led by Jesse Plemons), convinced she’s an alien intent on destroying the planet. Committed as ever, Stone shaved her head for the role (yes, it’s a plot point) — while Plemons’ transformation into a stringy haired, lanky frame is just as radical. Expect to see them both in the awards conversation.

Other buzzy performances to watch out for: Adam Sandler jokingly complained about not being able to wear shorts, but he earned plenty of buzz for his role in Jay Kelly, as Ron, the long-suffering manager to George Clooney‘s titular movie star. Rose Byrne may well find herself in the Best Actress conversation as well for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, about a mother very much on the verge.

Of course, it’s a very long road from now until March and festival fever can dissipate quickly. And more than a few high-profile contenders remain to be screened, including Kathryn Bigelow‘s A House of Dynamite, Josh Safdie‘s Marty Supreme, and Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another, among others. But judging from what we saw in the Rockies, the season is already off to a strong start.

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