The Washington Nationals enter tonight at 47-70, fresh off winning two of three from San Francisco, but still buried at the bottom of the NL East. Kansas City sits at 58-60, third in the AL Central, but has dropped four of its last six, including two of three to Minnesota.
Washington will send Cade Cavalli (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound after an eye-opening 2025 debut in which he generated plenty of whiffs with sharp velocity.
The Royals counter with Bailey Falter (7-6, 4.14 ERA), who has been hittable with a .273 xBA allowed and a 4.81 xERA per Statcast, though his team’s bullpen is also short-handed after heavy recent use.
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In his debut against the A’s, he struck out six in just 4 ⅓ innings, generating 19 whiffs and flashing elite velocity and command across four pitches. The Royals rank second-worst in MLB in strikeouts against this season despite being in the top tier in contact rate earlier in the year, and they’ve been more vulnerable lately with several regular contributors slumping at the plate.
Given his swing-and-miss stuff, velocity that is touching triple digits and an opponent that has whiffed at a high clip, this line looks attainable if Cavalli simply maintains his debut form.
Washington’s issue is consistency — just 14 runs in their last five games — but the lineup showed signs of life with a 17-hit outburst in their most recent win. Kansas City only averages 3.68 runs and the bullpen is taxed, with Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg and Angel Zerpa all having worked on consecutive days, making it harder to protect a late lead.
I’m never big on betting trends, but in this case, I think it’s worth mentioning that the Nationals have covered the run line in six straight road games versus Kansas City. Even with the Nats struggles against left-handers, the gap in pitching make this a spot where Washington can hang around and steal it late.
Pick: Nationals (+128 at FanDuel)
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