Where has 2025 gone? One way to mark the dizzying elapsing of time: The Oscar race is already coming into focus, now that we’re – gulp – three months out from nominations.
The competition still has much time to take shape, but there are a few frontrunners emerging, starting with Paul Thomas Anderson’s recently released chaotic opus “One Battle After Another” – which has enjoyed the best word of mouth this year, notching an impressive critic score of 95 on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic. (“One Battle After Another” is distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures, which is owned by celebrity.land’s parent company Warner Bros. Discovery.)
But not far behind are several other titles, including many yet to be released, like “Sentimental Value,” “Marty Supreme,” “Hamnet,” “Bugonia” and “Wicked: For Good,” to name a few.
A preliminary breakdown of top categories follows:
It’s been 15 years since the Academy opened up this race to more than the previously fixed number of five nominees – vacillating between eight and ten best picture contenders, and settling consistently on ten for the last few years. This year, that leaves the field open to quite a few possibilities. First, there’s “One Battle After Another,” whose director Anderson has frequently attracted Oscar love over the years and is seemingly a shoe-in for scoring a nomination for the night’s top honor. Ryan Coogler’s period-horror hit “Sinners” (also a Warner Bros. Pictures production) is also a solid contender, despite coming out in the summer months, which is a window often overlooked by Academy voters.
At this juncture, other buzzy films generating a fair amount of Oscar buzz are the English-, Norwegian- and Swedish-language “Sentimental Value” (out on November 7) starring Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning, “Hamnet” (out November 27) featuring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, and “Marty Supreme” (out on Christmas Day) with Timothée Chalamet and Gwyneth Paltrow. Let us also not overlook the Palme d’Or-winning Iranian film “It was Just an Accident,” out this month.
In the “maybe…could be…you never know!” section, there’s summer actioner “F1,” Netflix’s “Jay Kelly” with George Clooney and Guillermo del Toro-directed “Frankenstein.” These are probably in the long-shot category, but hey, Hollywood loves a twist.
The Academy certainly favors return nominees, but it also can’t resist a new arrival. This year, look for newcomer Chase Infiniti – whose quietly explosive performance is at the center of “One Battle After Another” – to be in the conversation. And although not a newbie on the scene, acclaimed Norwegian performer Renate Reinsve could have a place in the race for her work as the resentful daughter of an estranged director in “Sentimental Value,” which would mark her first Oscar nod.
As for returning favorites, there’s Buckley, who was nominated for best supporting actress in 2022 for “The Lost Daughter,” and is all but sure to receive one again this year for her lead role in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” playing a grief-stricken mother and wife to one William Shakespeare (Mescal). It would also be a major upset if Cynthia Erivo isn’t again recognized for her performance as Elphaba in the sequel “Wicked: For Good,” even though the film has yet to be screened for most anyone.
Other possible contenders who are not new to the Oscar race include Amanda Seyfried in “The Testament of Ann Lee,” Julia Roberts in “After the Hunt,” “Bugonia’s” Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence for “Die My Love.”
Let’s assume we’re reserving one chair for “One Battle’s” Leonardo DiCaprio – already an Oscar-winner for 2015’s “The Revenant.” That leaves us four slots to play with in the best actor race.
Actually, make that three, because “Narcos” actor Wagner Moura, who is making waves for his work in the Brazilian film “The Secret Agent,” already won best actor at Cannes for the espionage thriller. In the film, he plays a technology expert in late-’70s Recife who discovers he’s being targeted by some unsavory characters. Notable: Only 16 best actor winners from the ritzy Cannes fest have gone on to be nominated for an Academy Award.
The three other spots could go several ways. Michael B. Jordan, who plays twins with very different fates in “Sinners,” and Chalamet, who would be returning for a second consecutive Oscar nomination (and his third in total), are strong options.
On their heels, however, might be “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White, whose portrayal of Bruce Springsteen in “Deliver Me from Nowhere” has certainly generated press and some voter buzz. Other potential nominees include Dwayne Johnson for “The Smashing Machine,” Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon” – in which he plays Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart – and Jesse Plemons for his turn as a wild conspiracy theorist in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia.”
The best supporting actress race is a tough one to predict, since as usual, there’s just so much to choose from. Amy Madigan, known to most for ’80s films like “Uncle Buck” and “Field of Dreams,” turned out a bonkers performance in this summer’s breakout elevated horror hit “Weapons” (also from Warner Bros.) and has appeared on several lists as a favorite to be nominated here. It would mark her second Oscar nomination in this same category in exactly 40 years, after 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime.”
While horror doesn’t often get recognized by the Academy, the precedent has indeed been set – Ruth Gordon won Oscar gold in 1969 for playing a somewhat similar character in “Rosemary’s Baby,” and landmark genre films like “The Exorcist” and “Aliens” also received Academy recognition for the actresses who starred in those films.
Outside of that, keep your eyes on Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall, who each shine in “One Battle After Another,” and Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for their work in “Sentimental Value.”
And it’s too early to count out Ariana Grande, who will again portray Glinda in the upcoming “Wicked: For Good,” especially if the movie ends up being great.
If Sean Penn gets a nomination for his mercenary-like villain Colonel Lockjaw in “One Battle,” he could very well end up joining an elite group of three-time Oscar winners that includes Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson and Frances McDormand.
But “Hamnet’s” Mescal, a returning nominee following 2022’s “Aftersun,” also has a strong chance. While several actors have gotten nominated for playing roles in films based on Shakespeare’s works, no one has been nominated for playing the man himself. (Yes, 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love” was showered with Academy love, but the Bard-playing actor Joseph Fiennes was not nominated.)
Other potential contenders in this category could include Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value,” Adam Sandler for Netflix’s “Jay Kelly,” and Jeremy Strong – who was nominated last year for his chilling portrayal of Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice” – for “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.”
Oscar nominations will be unveiled on the morning of January 22, 2026. The 98th Academy Awards will be held on March 15.
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