Will Guillermo del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein’ scare up some Oscars? Behold the early predictions

Does Guillermo del Toro have another monster awards contender on his hands?

Over the weekend, the acclaimed auteur debuted his much-anticipated Frankenstein at the Venice Film Festival, receiving a 14-minute ovation that brought del Toro and the film’s stars to tears. It was a familiar scene for the director, who premiered The Shape of Water at Venice in 2017, where it drew rousing reviews and scored the Golden Lion before embarking on an impressive awards run culminating in four Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director.

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Del Toro and Netflix, which produced the new incarnation of Mary Shelley‘s gothic horror classic, are no doubt hoping to follow the trajectory of that earlier film, a romantic riff on another iconic horror, The Creature From the Black Lagoon.

But early critics haven’t been as unanimous in their praise of Frankenstein (expect more reviewers to weigh in ahead of its Oct. 17 theatrical debut), and based on early Gold Derby polling, del Toro’s latest has an uphill climb to repeat the success of The Shape of Water, which earned a leading 13 Oscar nominations in 2018. Given del Toro’s industry status and Oscar track record, though, Frankenstein should still be a force in key categories. Here’s our breakdown of the film’s Academy Award chances.

Adapted Screenplay

Throughout his career, the filmmaker’s work has been embraced by the writers’ branch. Del Toro’s first Oscar nomination came for his original screenplay for the supernatural fantasy Pan’s Labyrinth. He also received a nod for original screenplay for The Shape of Water. Of all the Oscar categories Gold Derby is currently tracking, Frankenstein’s best odds for a nomination are in adapted screenplay, where del Toro stands in sixth place for his reverent take on Shelley’s novel.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Contender

Odds

1.

Hamnet

92.8%

2.

Bugonia

85.2%

3.

Wake Up Dead Man

76.3%

4.

One Battle After Another

65.3%

5.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

55.6%

6.

Frankenstein

40.0%

Best Picture

Del Toro has been nominated twice in this category: for 2017’s The Shape of Water (which won), and 2021’s Nightmare Alley. Frankenstein is trending closer to that latter film, a genre piece more admired than loved (Frankenstein has a 79 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on initial reviews out of Venice, similar to Nightmare Alley’s 80 percent). Frankenstein is on the Best Picture bubble, sitting just outside the top 10 at No. 11, and ticking down a few percentage points since its premiere. But backed with Netflix’s campaign coffers and the famous del Toro charm offensive, Frankenstein should be in the Best Picture hunt through the season.

Best Picture

Contender

Odds

1.

Sinners

91.9%

2.

Wicked: For Good

85.0%

3.

Marty Supreme

83.7%

4.

Hamnet

81.3%

5.

Bugonia

74.5%

6.

Sentimental Value

73.4%

7.

Jay Kelly

65.0%

8.

Rental Family

63.9%

9.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

62.4%

10.

One Battle After Another

55.1%

11.

Frankenstein

38.4%

12.

It Was Just an Accident

33.5%

Best Director

In a field stacked with former winners and nominees, del Toro is presently on the outside looking in, at No. 9. But we know Academy voters love him, and with more than a month before the film arrives in theaters and two months before it debuts on Netflix, there’s a chance positive word of mouth could boost his standing.

Acting

The film stars Oscar Isaac as the titular scientist, Jacob Elordi as his signature creation, Mia Goth as the doctor’s fiancée, Elizabeth, and two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz as Elizabeth’s wealthy uncle who bankrolls Victor’s experiments. But the star power might not translate into Oscar gold.

The first reviews were near-universal in their praise for Elordi’s “revelatory” performance, and he currently has the best shot among the cast at landing a nomination, sitting at No. 13 in the Best Supporting Actor field, while Isaac (18th in Best Actor), Goth (21st in supporting actress), and Waltz (28th in supporting actor) have more ground to make up before being considered contenders.

Crafts

Del Toro’s films have always performed well below-the-line, and if the pattern holds, Frankenstein should be competitive in such categories as score (composed by Oscar winner Alexandre Desplat), production design, and makeup and hairstyling.

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